343 to 0: No Labour MP Voted Against the National Insurance Rise

Labour’s 2024 manifesto said: “We will not raise taxes on working people.”

On 17 December 2024 the National Insurance Contributions (Secondary Class 1 Contributions) Bill passed its Third Reading. The Commons division (Commons Votes API division 1899) shows 354 ayes and 202 noes overall. 343 Labour MPs voted aye. Zero Labour MPs voted no.

The Bill raised employer National Insurance from 13.8 per cent to 15 per cent and lowered the per-employee threshold from £9,100 to £5,000. The OBR’s October 2024 Economic and Fiscal Outlook costs the measures at £23.8 billion in 2025/26, rising to £25.7 billion in 2029/30 on a static basis. After accounting for behavioural responses the OBR forecasts a net £16.1 billion in 2029/30, with around three-quarters of the cost passed to workers through lower real wages by 2026/27. The OBR’s judgement on incidence is published in the EFO and in the OBR’s supplementary forecast information on the static costing of changes to Employer National Insurance Contributions.

Paul Johnson, then-Director of the Institute for Fiscal Studies, told Times Radio in October 2024 that raising employer NICs “would be a straightforward breach of a manifesto commitment” because the manifesto did not distinguish between employee and employer NICs.

The published OBR judgement and the manifesto commitment are both in the public record. Every Labour MP who voted at Third Reading voted aye. The verbatim division record is on the Parliament website. Readers can draw their own conclusions about whether the manifesto commitment has been kept.

Sources: Commons Votes API division 1899; OBR Economic and Fiscal Outlook October 2024; OBR supplementary forecast information on the static costing of changes to Employer National Insurance Contributions; IFS Director Paul Johnson, Times Radio interview October 2024.